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The impact probability for a collision of asteroid 2007 WD5 with Mars on January 30 has increased from 1.3% to 3.9%. Pre-discovery observations of asteroid 2007 WD5, taken on November 8, 2007 have allowed its orbit to be refined and the uncertainties for the late January Mars encounter have been improved.

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Presentation on theme: "Color Variation: o Fixed Probability of Exceedance & Duration:"— Presentation transcript

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Exceedance Probability( Probability of occurrence) The likelihood of a flood of a specific magnitude over a given magnitude occurring over a given time period. Exceedence probability for 2 year return period =(1/2) or 50%.

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AEP is probability of exceeding a given amount of rainfall for a given duration at least once in any given year at a given location. It is an indicator of the rarity of rainfall amounts and is used as the basis of hydrologic design. The rarity of this event is illustrated in the two figures below. Figure 1 shows how the maximum observed rainfall amounts compared to corresponding rainfall frequency estimates for AEPs from 1/2 (50%) to 1/1000 (0.1%) for durations from 1 day to 60 days for a ...

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Jul 26, 2013 · The actual calculations can be carried out using tables of the t-statistic, or the modified values shown in Table 11-l (31). To use Table 11-1, enter with the sample size minus 1 and read across to the column with the desired exceedance probability. The

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phi = 0.5* (1+erf( (x-mu)/ (sqrt(2)*sigma)); This means that the probability of the sum of 32 values between 0 and 6 will be distributed with. mean = 96 sigma = sqrt(32*6/12) = 4. And the probability that the sum is less than 88 would be given by. p = 0.5* (1+erf( (88-96)/ (sqrt(2)*4)) = 2.3%. share.